Will Russia accept Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire?

After Trump cut-off all military aide to Ukraine and the sharing of crucial intelligence last week, Zelensky finally agreed to a 30-day ceasefire to hold peace talks and do a deal with Russia.  Previously Zelensky had rejected a short-term ceasefire as he accused Russia of using this time to regroup, replenish supplies and attack again.  Obviously Zelensky realized that he needs Trump.

Russia on the other hand, does not need Trump as much, if at all.  However, Putin wants to do business deals with Trump including a rare earth metals exploration deal and a deal to supply aluminium (up to 2 million tons annually) to the US domestic market. Prior to US sanctions in 2023, Russia provided 15% of US aluminium imports.  Russia has the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earth metals after China, Brazil, India and Australia. Russian reserves are estimated at 3.8 million metric tons but it only mines 2,500 tons of concentrate a year and lacks capacity for processing. Putin suggested that Russia and the USA could work jointly on aluminium production with Rusal, Russia’s largest aluminium producer in the Krasnoyarsk region in Siberia. Likewise, he proposed that Russia and USA can together explore and develop Russia’s vast rare earth metal resources, including the deposits in the four eastern Ukraine regions that it now controls.

Putin’s main demands for a peace deal are: no NATO membership for Ukraine, an agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine and international recognition of Russia’s claim that Crimea and the four Ukrainian provinces it now controls belong to Russia. 

Will Putin’s demands be accepted by USA? Most likely, as Trump wants peace and to stop sending aid to Ukraine.  Will Putin accept the “US 30-day peace deal”?  Probably, as the alternative would be facing Trump’s wrath including wider US sanctions and tariffs against Russia; continuing the war in Ukraine and potentially starting World War 3.  We must not forget that in Trump’s first presidency, he stated that if Russia invaded Ukraine, he would bomb the crap out of Moscow…..

I have had first-hand experience of doing business in Russia. Russia is a land of smoke and mirrors – nothing is as it seems.  I was there a few years before Bill Browder and my experience was a mirror image of his which I have documented in my new book to be released on 15 April 2025, “For the Love of Russian Gold”.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits a command centre of the Russian armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, Russia, Ma rch 12, 2025, in this still image taken from video. Russian Pool/Reuters TV via REUTERS